January Blues, February QQQs?

Witty subtitle

I haven’t posted since January 4th. No, I didn’t die. At least I don’t think so. In any event, I’m able to type on a keyboard and that’s all that matters.

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Dow down mid-day by 400 points!

Makes a shocking headline, but it’s meaningless. First, it’s normal, every day volatility. -400 points is less than 1%. Besides, the indices are coming off all time highs…and they ended the day off their lows anyway.

I’d be more concerned about the back-up in yields and the Fed stomping its feet about policy rates staying high. The big question is this: will the Fed once again be late to anticipate economic changes?

My guess is it will. The “data dependent” Fed won’t start cutting meaningfully until they see the whites of the eyes of a pending recession. By this point they’ll be 6-18 months behind.

Chart 1: Tech Heavyweights - You Get What You Pay For, Hopefully

Chart 2: Fed Policy Rates Remain Quite Restrictive

Chart 3: Markets Quickly Change Their Minds

Charts 4+: The Death of Socializing

Good viewing: Are the Roaring ‘20s Back?