1: The most wonderful time of year…for China
88% of the world’s Christmas decorations come from China. Add that to all the imported Christmas presents and you can see why this is the most wonderful time of year for China.
2: The dot plot
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) expects three rate hikes in 2022, as the US labor market approaches full employment. Each dot in the chart below represents the year-end Fed Funds Rate forecast for each individual FOMC member.
3: Heat domes and droughts affecting food production
Due to drought conditions, North American dry pea production is expected to drop significantly. In particular, Canadian production is down 45%.
I think food security will become the top issue in the years ahead as unpredictable weather decimates yields. Usually, declines in one region can be offset by production in another, but climate change is increasing the risk of a multi-region failure. The odds of this happening are small but rising and should be taken seriously, as it would devastate food availability sending prices higher and causing famine.
During the pandemic, interest in home gardening exploded. I think we should all embrace this trend to become more self sufficient. Each household could probably grow 10-20%+ of their own food, easing dependence on mass-scale agriculture. Not only would this improve food security, it would reduce pollutants and climate damage created by industrial agriculture.