1: Inflation-Yields disconnect.
Inflation and inflation expectations have risen considerably faster than US Treasury yields. Will the gap close?
There remains room to move, but yields are catching up quickly, with the 10yr briefly breaking through 1.8% today. Over the past while, the market seems to be anticipating higher rates, with tech stocks to falling and bank stocks to rallying.
Higher yields may shift inflation expectations down.
2: Prediction Bingo: What the experts see for 2022
Note the squares for inflation, supply chain disruptions and interest rates. All point to softening inflation pressures.
3: More signs global price pressures may be easing
Top half shows various inflation-related metrics coming down over the past couple months. Bottom half shows a very slight peaking in global supply chain pressures.
4: Savings rates skyrocketed through the pandemic, but most of that accrued to top income brackets
On the demand side of the equation, it appears there remains enough consumer wealth to keep fueling consumption, which may put a floor under any inflation easing. Overall, consumers are in good financial shape and are spending a lot.