Just a moment of optimism as Russia and Ukraine appear to make progress during peace talks. According to the Financial Times, they are working on a 15 point plan based on Ukraine’s neutrality:
The proposed deal, which Ukrainian and Russian negotiators discussed in full for the first time on Monday, would involve Kyiv renouncing its ambitions to join Nato and promising not to host foreign military bases or weaponry in exchange for protection from allies such as the US, UK and Turkey…
I assume the security guarantee will be a sticking point, as it’s is almost a low-key NATO expansion.
If this news continues to move in a constructive direction, I expect market anxieties to unwind.
1: Crippling sanctions and a challenging invasion has given Ukraine a better bargaining position. Russian billionaires have lost considerable wealth (first chart) over the past few weeks as the currency collapses, so you can bet they are pressuring leadership to put an end to the hostilities.
China, which reportedly supported Russia’s actions early on, was likely caught off guard by the severity of violence and West’s reaction. Peace is profitable, so I suspect China is also pressuring the Kremlin to negotiate a peace deal.
Furthermore, trade embargos on industrial inputs for the production of goods within Russia (second chart) - including non-essential medicines - are harming local Russian businesses and the general population. Few are happy.
2: Covid continues to stealthily creep back into the news, as the number of US locations experiencing significant case increases continues to rise. This rise is occurring over a short period, suggesting something has changed. The public consciousness has shifted from Covid to the war, amid easing public health measures, so this increase could be due to a decline in vigilance. Or it could be due to a new variant hitting the streets.
Regardless, if the trend continues, this back-page news might start to hit more mainstream awareness in the coming weeks.
3: Finally, an interesting chart breaking down the distribution of human population over time.