1: During war, expect to take accounts from both sides with some skepticism. However, there is mounting evidence that Ukraine is putting up a strong defense, defying Russia’s expectations. If the numbers in the table below are accurate, this is devastating to Russia.
If you want more intelligence on how Russian forces are doing, read this Twitter thread by the former Estonian Chief of Defence.
2: The yield curve has flattened considerably over the past year. History demonstrates that this is a worrying indicator for future economic growth, as yield curves tend to flatten ahead of recessions. But with inflation running hot, we may be walking into a stagflationary (economic stagnation + high inflation) environment. (Note: the yield curve is the gap between short term bonds and long term bond yields, in this case 2yr and 10yr US Treasuries.)
3: As a threat to US dollar hegemony as the global reserve currency, China is increasingly trading with Russia in yuan terms. In a matter of 5 years, the dollar’s share of China-Russia trade settlements has declined by about 50 percentage points.
Global trade still primarily takes place in US dollars, so demand for dollars remains high, thus allowing the US to run persistent deficits. If the dollar lost its global reserve status, America’s ability to fund its standard of living and government expenses would be diminished. This transition is anticipated eventually (as global reserve currencies come and go with empires), but major shifts are not expected for years or decades. Although it is rising in power, the yuan is still not a direct competitor to the dollar as a global reserve currency.