If there’s one chart that explains everything, this is it. It shows the pipelines connecting Russian natural gas to European consumers.
Did you know:
47% of 2021 EU natural gas imports come from Russia
Also:
"80% of Russia’s natural gas sales go to Europe and 36% of Russia’s total budget come from oil and natural gas sales." -- Stephanie Link, Chief Investment Strategist, Hightower Advisors
Given mutual dependencies, a rational actor would make this an extremely short war with a very friendly occupying force. Just as Europe can’t afford higher energy prices or a disruption in supply, Russia can't afford a protracted disruption to its energy exports or the cost of a prolonged war. (US misadventures over the past 20 years cost $2 trillion.)
Also, Russia can't win by oppressing 44 million people indefinitely - especially while claiming them to be part of Russian history.
They win by quickly decapitating Ukrainian leadership, infusing a Russia-friendly government AND making all this to the benefit of the Ukrainian people. Russia achieves reintegration of Ukraine while maintaining it's own economic status quo by making this as painless as possible.
Of course, this is just my naïve 2 cents - history shows the opposite is quite possible, with brutality repeatedly suppressing rationality. But those familiar with Sun Tzu’s 2500 year old book “The Art of War” will recall the following:
“The greatest victory is that which requires no battle”
I'm not an expert on geopolitics and would love to hear your thoughts.